Web 2.0 Meets Error 33

Apparently Amazon's Elastic Cloud snapped yesterday and havoc rained down on a number of Web 2.0 sites. This is unfortunate because the same kind of technology was deployed very rapidly (elastically?), exactly one year ago, to help search for missing computer scientist and yachtsman, Jim Gray.

When I was at Xerox PARC, we had a term for this kind of failure mode: Error 33. Error 33 states that it is not a good idea for the success of your research project to be dependent on the possible failure of someone else's research project. This term was coined by the first Director of Xerox PARC, Dr. George Pake and the nomenclature is reminiscent of Catch 22.

Error 33 is an all too appropriate reminder that a lot of Web 2.0 technology, which is hyped as ready for prime-time, is really still in the R&D phase. It's probably only very annoying when SmugMug is off the air for several hours, but mission-critical services like banks and hospitals should approach with caution. Achieving higher reliability is only likely to come at a higher premium.

Moore's Law II: More or Less?

For the past few years, Intel, AMD, IBM, Sun, et al., have been promoting the concept of multicores i.e., no more single CPUs. A month ago, however, Intel and IBM made a joint announcement that they will produce single CPU parts using 45 nanometer (nm) technology. Intel says it is converting all its fab lines and will produce 45 nm parts (code named "penryn") by the end of this year. What's going on here?



We fell off the Moore's law curve, not because photolithography collided with limitations due to quantum physics or anything else exotic, but more mudanely because it ran into a largely unanticipated thermodynamic barrier. In other words, Moore's law was stopped dead in its tracks by old-fashioned 19th century physics.