It's a BRisk Wind That Blows No Good

OK, I admit it. I can't resist this "I told you so" moment:

1. BRisk Management
   
2. When BRisk Goes Bust

But that doesn't mean I'm happy about it. In fact, I'd much prefer it had not happened. In case you missed what I'm talking about, a 5000 lb chunk of the San Francisco Bay Bridge (not the Golden Gate) fell onto the upper deck last night. Several drivers narrowly avoided potentially fatal injuries as pieces fell onto their vehicles. That's 2 tons or 2268 kg of falling steel, folks!


Click for video at KTVU Channel 2
Apparently, it was from the same cracked steel "I-bar" (a hinged strut shaped like the link in a bicycle chain) that delayed traffic flow while it was repaired less than 2 months ago. This failure was supposedly due to vibration from the high winds that prevailed yesterday, not an earthquake. No comment on the quality of the steel.

When BRisk Goes Bust

In a nice counterpoint to my previous post on BRisk Management, the latest director of Europe's new atom-smasher (the LHC, which I'll be talking about next week), says he will be more cautious than his predecessor, following the very public failure last September.

An ultra-cold, superconducting magnet on the big ring, collapsed only days after the \$10 billion LHC was switched on and will require more than \$26 million in repairs. With that price tag (even though it's only half what Wall St. paid itself in bonuses last year---for assessing BRisk rather than risk?), the pressure is on for these guys to produce. So, it's not too surprising that the new director said:

"The LHC will be double checked by outside experts before any attempt is made to switch the machine back on, probably in July. I want to be sure that everything works, so I'll also let an external group make additional checks on the accelerator."

Let's compare and contrast with the Bay Bridge situation, shall we? According to the SF Chron:

"...the inspection outfit that sounded the alarm has since been replaced."

In other words, the independent, external inspectors, for the Bay Bridge welds, were terminated for being too pernickety, which would inflate the CalTrans schedule.

Nothing like a good failure to reduce the risk in BRisk. I just hope I'm not on the Bay Bridge when it happens.

Update: To catch up to its 2010 milestones, it has since been decided that the LHC will remain running, continuously, for one year after it's rebooted this summer.

BRisk Management

In my upcoming Guerrilla Boot Camp class, I have a whole bit on Risk Management vs. Risk Perception. The point being that if you, as the performance analyst/capacity planner in your organization, don't appreciate the perspective of your manager, you are going to find yourself very frustrated when certain of your recommendations seem to fall on deaf ears.

Most managers are employed to look after one thing: schedules. If a manager perceives that your performance recommendation could inflate the schedule, it ain't gonna happen (no matter how sane or realistic it might be). I reinforce this perspective by saying:

Managers will let a project fail. As long as it fails on time!

This may sound a bit melodramatic but here is a statement of precisely that type:

"I can understand people being worked up about safety and quality with the welds," said Steve Heminger, executive director ... "But we're concerned about being on schedule because we are racing against the next earthquake."

This is a quote from an executive manager for the new Bay Bridge currently being constructed between Oakland and San Francisco. A section of the upper deck collapsed on this bridge during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989.

He's not an IT manager, but he is watching the clock and saying, let's increase the risk that the new bridge will fail (by being brisk about welding inspections), in order to beat the much lower risk that the old bridge might fail again in a quake. Substitute your favorite project, product or application, for the word "bridge" and you get my drift.

Updateof May 2013

The original high-risk Caltrans decision has prompted Gov. Jerry Brown to threaten delaying the scheduled Labor Day opening of the new Bay Bridge span. Erm... so, how did this brisk management decision save time (and money)?

Update of August 16, 2013

The on again, off again, new Bay Bridge opening is on again. As you can probably tell from this KALW piece, there is some skepticism regarding the rationale. [emphasis mine]

"the cracked bolts in the new bridge are apparently better than the totally unsafe old bridge, which wouldn't survive a minor earthquake. ... Experts say the old bridge is extremely unsafe, and won't hold through even a moderate earthquake."

Rubbish! Nothing has really changed significantly on the old bridge structure. This is all about saving political face (and possibly the $20 million contractor bonus). Would I drive the new span? Possibly. But more likely, I'd take BART (via the trans-Bay tube). :)