Sunday, September 15, 2013

Laplace the Bayesianista and the Mass of Saturn

I'm reviewing Bayes' theorem and related topics for the upcoming GDAT class. In its simplest form, Bayes' theorem is a statement about conditional probabilities. The probability of A, given that B has occurred, is expressed as: Pr(A|B)=Pr(B|A)×Pr(A)Pr(B)
In Bayesian language, Pr(A|B) is called the posterior probability, Pr(A) the prior probability, and Pr(B|A) the likelihood (essentially a normalization factor).

Source: Wikipedia