Friday, December 26, 2008

What's Up (and Down) for 2009

My Aussie colleague, Steve 'Jenks' Jenkin, just pointed me at Robert X. Cringely's (real name: Mark ... Well, who cares? Besides, I like the 'X' factor) prognostications for 2009. Even though he's basically a journalist (a very plugged-in journo, btw), you gotta respect a guy who also reviews his previously wrong predictions.
"Final (2008) score: 4 right and 11 wrong. ... Obviously I have to start making vaguer predictions ..." :-)

Despite this self-flagellation, he's generally had some pretty good insights prior to 2008 and you can't win 'em all, all the time. Here are some of his darts-in-the-wall for 2009:
  • "The good news is that most recessions mean new IT platforms."
  • "The next Yahoo CEO will dismember the company and sell it piecemeal."
  • "Microsoft and Google will peak in 2009 ... Steve Ballmer is toast." [ Jenks claims 2010 for the M$ demise.---njg] (Like Humpty-Dumpty, The Goog) "... is too fat and happy."
  • "If Microsoft and Google are down then what's up? Apple!"

Please standby. ...

1 comment:

Ed Borasky said...

I don't think Apple is going to be "up" in 2009. They can't maintain their margins: there are way too many practical alternatives to the iPhone, their desktops and their laptops. The only place where they really have an edge is in the iPod, and you can't grow with just iPods.

But I think he's right about Ballmer. It's not just the failure of the Yahoo purchase and the catastrophe of Windows Vista. It's also the failure of Microsoft to provide a practical solution to the botnet problem.